Arctic Runaway Event

Arctic Runaway Event

by Patrick Hogan, NASA Earth Scientist Emeritus

If you don’t yet know the name Greta Thunberg, you need to!
She spoke at the UN Climate Change Conference in December,
giving the best three-and-a-half-minute wake-up call there is!

Greta Thunberg at COP24 December 2018

And then at DAVOS January 2019

Even though change is happening right before our eyes,
‘The Guardian’ and so many others in the media say that
somehow these changes climax “. . .by the year 2100.”
However these major climate-related catastrophes are
accelerating now! ! !

A third of Himalayan Ice Cap doomed!
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/03d00af79aeb3f414c0e8e3540aa3b8d219a6619/0_0_4256_2554/master/4256.jpg?width=700&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=4436c371a4ba79dc81736e64df0a7f8e
Everything is put off far enough, as though there were time. . .
Time for someone else to deal with it!
The meltwater from those Himalayan glaciers
serve a couple of billion people throughout the year.
They are very rapidly going to Never Never Land.

Peter pan 1911 pipes.jpg

We humans don’t quite get it yet.
Even if we zero-out carbon tomorrow,
the greenhouse gases (GHGs) already in the atmosphere
will continue to increase the Earth’s temperature for decades.

Earth is ‘running a fever’ that is accelerating,
yet we continue to dismantle a precious carbon-extraction system!
An acre of forest is being cleared every second,
mostly the Amazon, and mostly for cattle [burgers].
Leave the forests there!  For carbon sequestration,
and about half our oxygen supply!
And instead, let’s plant an acre of trees every second, worldwide.

Are we serious about decreasing carbon emissions???
We’ve been agreeing to decrease carbon for years,
via the UN IPCC, and yet the opposite is true.
Our only mantra seems to be,
Maximum Profit for a few,
at the expense of Life for all
.

The fuse is lit!
Loss of the Arctic Sea Ice is when Earth Goes BOOM!
The length of that fuse is the rapidly shrinking Arctic Sea Ice.
We may only be a year-or-few away from a Blue Ocean Event (BOE).
Click here to compare 1984 Arctic Sea Ice minimum to 2016.
(A video below shows the progression in greater detail.)

The Arctic is going from ice-white 90% reflectance
to dark-blue 90% absorbance of Sun-heat.
That’s 180% switch!
Essentially a heat lamp for the Arctic.

Further warming the Arctic could easily erupt
50 gigatons of methane, to quote the world’s leading expert
on Arctic methane, Natalia Shakhova:

“Everything looks anomalous. . .
Making [him/me] think that the worst thing might happen.
Strictly speaking, we do not like what we see there!
Absolutely do not like!”

There is anywhere from 1500 to 2500 gigatons
of methane in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf alone!
Even a 1-2% release could lead to runaway climate change.
At that point, nothing could stop rapid extinction of life on Earth.

Runaway climate change
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/2007_Arctic_Sea_Ice.jpg

To explain this runaway’ phenomenon, let’s look at our current planetary state.
There are ‘only’ 800 gigatons of CO2 in the entire Earth’s atmosphere.
Those 800 gt of CO2 make up less than 1% of Earth’s atmosphere,
with nitrogen at 78% and oxygen at 21%.
That’s how potent CO2 is, very little goes a very long way!
And worse still, methane, in its first few years, goes much further!
Methane is 80x more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2.

Do the math with this criteria and it boggles the mind!
80x even a small methane release of 50 gt = 4000 gt CO2-equivalent.
That is 5 times all of the CO2 now in our atmosphere.
With that, life on Earth is done, well done and then some!
Major extinction events have happened before, five big ones.
The current extinction rate is already >10-100x faster than
any previous extinction event!
And our current extinction rate, continues to increase!

Arctic Sea Ice Volume Throughout the Year
(note September minimum)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=119.0;attach=101090;image
The disappearing Arctic Sea Ice is already down to
<25% of normal at the September minimum!
And even that’s being conservative.
Using the average minimum of 1979-2001 at ~14.0k km3
compared with the actual  minimum of 2012 at ~3.5k km3
It’s going, going, gone. . . Unless we do something soon!

You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to interpret
the drama to Earth’s accelerating warming trend,
and attendant loss of our A/C,
Earth’s Arctic Sea Ice Air Conditioner!

The 20-warmest years on record
have all occurred within the last 22 years.
And the last 5 years have been the warmest of all!
Do you notice the increasing acceleration to this trend?https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f8/Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg/1280px-Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg.png

And here you see the Arctic Sea Ice ‘fuse’ headed for…
Earth Goes BOOM!

Polar Science Center » PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reanalysis
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png

The UN IPCC climate models used for prediction
do not even attempt to account for this methane.

Methane eruptions, mythical in nature, are already occurring!
Far more methane is stored under the Arctic Ocean.
Here is what they look like on land in the Arctic Circle…

7,000 massive methane gas bubbles under the
Russian permafrost could explode anytime
[and already are…]

See the source image

Check out Wikipedia’s second graph for atmospheric methane.
You can see the ‘actual’ human civilization rise.
It’s the classic exponential hockey-stick graph.
Are we the puck?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/dd/Atmospheric_Concentrations_of_Methane_Over_Time.png
A Few Arctic Methane References:


Let’s support Greta Thunberg’s call to climate action!

And something you can do right now!
The meat and dairy industry, and related activities,
are responsible for 51% of our greenhouse gas emissions.
WoW!  Limiting your meat consumption will help!
Please read this,
Meat: To Eat Or Not To Eat

As a final note, over 15,000 scientists
from 184 countries, are saying ‘Please wake up!’
World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice.

One Reply to “Arctic Runaway Event”

  1. Isn’t it time really to refuse to face children with this? Why should we impose life on them when they are not given a choice whether to briefly dwell under such a Damocles sword? As they will have nowhere to flee to. Their fight mechanisms will be switched on all the time, which will be very detrimental to both their health and mental well-being. This is already the case with many. To Greta I can only say ‘sorry.’ I went through what she is going through, but my own children won’t, I have left them in happy oblivion.

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